CALISO Sandbagging or Flex Alerts Working?

I believe the AC unit in our house had been on constantly for the past 72 hours. It’s still very hot at night so my dad just leaves the AC on at 76 degrees. We have window fans and box fans on a couple of windows but they just blow in warm air. Luckily, we have not experienced a rolling blackout at our house. Actually, even though there are a lot of warnings, I don’t think there were any blackouts since Friday.

If you look at the actual demand versus forecast from the previous day, there is a flatting of demand near peak times for Monday and Tuesday. Maybe this is the result of all the alerts and warnings as people cut some of their energy use. The question is whether this is predictable since CALISO is definitely not account for it a day before. Here are the demand charts for Friday, Monday, and Tueadsy.

Friday 8/14 – actual demand and forecast match up pretty closely
Monday 8/17 – definite gap between actual demand and forecast starting at 2:00 pm
Tuesday 8/18 – same as Monday, a gap between actual demand and forecast starting at 3:00 pm

Compared to Friday actual peak of ~47,000 MW, the previous day forecast for Monday and Tuesday were 49,000 and ~50,000 MW respectively. However, the actual usage came in at ~45,000 and ~47,000 MW. Did CALISO over forecast demand, which resulted in all the emails and alert warnings? Or were we going to use more power than Friday but was moderated somewhat by the emails and alert warnings? It does seem that with 52,800 MW of peak supply, there’s enough power without rolling blackouts but I could be wrong.

Not Arizona or Death Valley hot but pretty warm… and we can’t run into a mall to cool off. Good thing we have central AC installed in the house. Otherwise I’m going to work just for AC and cold drinks, quarantine or not!

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