Market Bubbles

I saw an Instagram reel where someone buys a pair of Nike sneakers for $15,000. This was not the only video as there is a large speculative secondary market for sneakers. I guess some of the buyers are collectors, but many are buying to resell at a premium. We learned about this in business school, with the classic example being Dutch tulip bulbs.

The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble, also known as ‘tulipmania’ was one of the most famous market bubbles and crashes of all time. It occurred in Holland during the early to mid-1600s when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person’s annual salary.

Today, the tulipmania serves as a parable for the pitfalls that excessive greed and speculation can lead to.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

Of course, there are many examples of bubbles. People say that there is a housing bubble in Southern California. My run-of-the-mill four-bedroom house built in 1987 has an Internet valuation of ~$1.3M. Is that a fair price? Houses nearby are being sold at similar prices so maybe? Will the bubble burst at some point and send prices crashing? Likely. However, there is an intrinsic value to a house as a shelter so there is a floor to the valuation. Same thing for stock. There have been bubbles too, but there is an intrinsic value to well-established and well-managed companies. Stock in large blue chip companies will go up and down, but are unlikely to drop completely to zero.

What about sneakers? How much are people willing to pay for a (nice) pair of shoes if the collector market crashes? $50? $100? My friend is into collecting basketball cards. He would go to Target on restock days to see if he can get a box of cards cheap, but there are usually a crowd of people doing the same. IMHO, some of these cards have ridiculous valuations, like hundreds of thousands of dollars for a Jordan rookie card or something. Ultimately, it is a small piece of cardboard. The intrinsic value is near $0, and any valuation is due to the artificial scarcity created by the card companies. I have no issues with people speculating, but all market bubbles will burst, and there will be lots of people left holding worthless “investment” items.

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I found a listing for a pair of 1985 Air Jordans in Chicago Bulls colors. My sister had these exact same shoes, and in 1987, she got them signed by Reggie Miller and Pooh Richardson while they were still seniors at UCLA. Imagine what they would be worth now if she kept them pristine in the box.

COVID Exposure Notification

During the initial COVID outbreak, I remember my iPhone kept asking me to approve Exposure Notifications. I imagine this was using the iPhone network to track close contacts and to provide a notification if one of them tested positive for COVID. This was released with iOS 13.7 in early September 2020.

So after almost two years, I finally got a notification tonight.

A couple of issues. First, the notification is for a 48-hour period. Is the by design? I am sure Apple knows the exact moment of the proximity contact; at lease give us a narrower window. Second, there is no location. For this notification, it was for Wednesday and Thursday. This means it is 99% likely that it was a work contact since I did not see anyone outside of work. If you visited a lot of places during the 48-hours, this notification would not give you any useful information other than to get tested for COVID. Finally, I assume that the notification is two days late is because the contact only tested positive today?

I guess I will wait until tomorrow morning to do another rapid test.

MacAlly Bluetooth Mouse

At the beginning of June, I bought an inexpensive Bluetooth mouse for my MacBook from MacAlly/Amazon. I have a first-generation Apple Magic Mouse. It works fine, but I do not like the touch scroll feature. I would inadvertently swipe back when I am in a browser and have lost several post edits because I “backed” out of a blogpost-in-progress. The brand had many products, and I purchased their $20 Bluetooth wireless mouse. I received the mouse the day before my Europe trip so all I had time for was to connect it to my MacBook to make sure it works.

After getting back from Europe, the mouse worked fine for about a week. Suddenly, the cursor stopped moving. Strangely, the buttons and the scroll wheel still worked. I tried connecting it to my PC and the same thing occurred. Meanwhile, my Magic Mouse kept on working.

As I am fairly sure the mouse is the problem, and it was too late to return it to Amazon, I called the company directly. I misread the address as somewhere in Ontario, Canada when they were really in Ontario, California. There was no one answering the phone, so I left a voicemail. After two weeks with no answer, I went back to their website and filled out a tech support form. This time, the response was very quick, and they gave me an RMA number. The tech support email mentioned that it was likely the Bluetooth chip (why do the buttons still work) and they will send me a new one. I can keep the old mouse due to COVID. Tech support was also trying to locate my voicemail to figure out why I did not get a callback.

The mouse is pretty nice for an inexpensive wireless mouse. I believe they never received my original voicemail, and they responded quickly to my second request. I am supposed to get a replacement mouse in a few days. I will leave them a good review if that happens, even though the original mouse was defective.

European BA.5 Cases

Several people have told me that the timing of our Italy & Paris trip was good. If we had gone earlier, there were still many COVID restrictions, and we would have needed to get a PCR test before coming back to the US. Any later, then we would have been caught in the July heat wave, and the recent spike in COVID cases due to the BA.5 variant. Here is the chart of new cases for Campania, where Sorrento and the Almafi Coast are located.

I picked Campania since that was our last destination in Italy, but the pattern for the entire country is similar. The large spike due to OG Omicron is about twice the BA.5 spike in July. Again, we thought we missed the BA.2 spike in cases but walked into the most virulent variant to date.

Above is the temperature in Europe a month after our trip. It was in the mid-to-high 80’s Fahrenheit most days. This maps shows mid-to-upper 90’s, which is a huge difference if you are walking around outside. I cannot imagine wearing a KN95/PPF2 mask in 100 °F weather.

Amazon Fresh Addiction

After returning from our Europe trip and testing positive for COVID, I found myself trying out grocery delivery for the first time. I have several apps, including Albertsons and Instacart, but decided to try Amazon fresh since I have a Prime account and the physical store is not too far away in Irvine Marketplace. Since “free delivery” was offered on orders > $35, my first order was about $40. That was on June 24. Since then, I have made three more orders, with the most recent being delivered about two hours ago.

Initially I thought the prices would be much higher than if I shopped in person, but the prices on Amazon fresh are competitive with what I find at the local Albertsons. I am still not sure about relative product availability, but I was able to find most items I was looking for. Since delivery is usually after two hours, I have not had issues with frozen or refrigerated goods. I usually tip 10% of the order for the driver so costs may be slightly higher overall, but justifiable. I still go to Albertsons regularly since stuff like soda and bulkier items are not great with delivery. Maybe I will start alternative weeks between online and real-life grocery shopping.

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Hmm, with the Omicron BA.5 COVID variant case count increasing, grocery shopping online also seems a bit less risky of getting infected again. Since the driver sends a notification when he/she is about to arrive, I have been opening up the garage for them so they do not have to navigate the walkway to my front door.

Low Blood Sugar at Raising Canes

As part of my Amazon/Kohl’s return adventure last night, I got dinner at Raising Canes. I believe I got there around 8:30 pm and the was a medium line. The problem was that I took an insulin shot before I left the house 30+ minutes prior. My blood sugar has been high most of the day, so even when I measured a 120 before leaving the house, I shot 12 units of insulin thinking I would get the food quickly.

While driving from Kohl’s to Canes, I could already feel signs of hypoglycemia (slight dizziness and cold sweat). I popped a glucose pill but felt about the same. After placing my order in the drive-thru, I took another pill but felt more or less the same. Fortunately, I got my order (just six chicken fingers) after only about 10 minutes, and quickly ate two chicken fingers. When I got home, I tapped the reader to my CGM sensor and it appears my blood sugar got down to the 50’s. That is way too low for me. Good thing I have 5 mg glucose tablets stashed everywhere.

Next time, I will just carry the insulin pen with me instead of injecting early and trying to time my food intake.

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I downloaded the glucose data from the Libre 2 scanner. My blood sugar got down to about 75 yesterday. That is not super low, but since I have diabetes, anything below 90 feels terrible for me.

Amazon Order Screw-Up

Ugh. I am getting old and forgetful. I purchased a Kasa outdoor security camera last week. It had a coupon for $18, which took the price down from $60 to $42. Last night, i saw it for $42, but I forgot what I paid for it. I checked the order history, and it said $60. The $18 coupon was at the bottom of the invoice, but you do not see that when you view the order from the refund page. Anyway, like an idiot, I asked for a refund, thinking I paid $60, and reordered the product.

Since I was going out to get dinner, I dropped off the item at the local Kohl’s. When I got the refund notice, it said I was refunded only $42. Again, like an idiot, I call Amazon. It took me fifteen minutes and three tries to get a live person. I then berated them about giving me the wrong refund when the CSR insisted I got the correct refund (I did). I finally pulled up the invoice PDF and saw the $18 credit at the bottom. Ugh. I apologized several times and hung up. So instead of paying $42 for a security camera, I now have the same $42 camera coming next week, and I have a $42 Amazon credit instead of cash.

So stupid.

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I have dropped off several Amazon returns at the local Kohl’s. Initially, the refund desk was right at the entrance. You go in, drop off, and leave; it was quick and simple. At some point, they moved the Amazon drop-off point near the right-middle of the store so you have to walk through several clothing sections. Last night, the Amazon drop-off point was moved upstairs. Y0u have to walk to the middle of the store, take an escalator up, then walk to the middle of the second floor for the down escalator. It adds about 60 seconds to the return experience and you get to walk through half the store. I guess Kohl’s wanted to maximize the foot traffic through their store. I wonder if the cost is worth the extra foot traffic.

Also, even with the prevalence of the BA.5 strain of COVID, nobody was wearing a mask.

COVID Test History

So after two plus weeks, I am finally over my COVID infection. The positive indicator was very faint on Thursday, and totally not there last night. I still have a slight cough and itchy throat, but I often have those symptoms for no real reason way before COVID.

The question now is what variant did I get? Based on the new cases history for France above (the curve for Italy is similar), I think it was the BA.4/BA.5 variant.You can see the massive spike in cases for the first Omicron variant (BA.1) in January, then the smaller bump for BA.2. I was feeling pretty good about our trip to Europe since we left during the low in early June, but a month later, we can see the effect of BA.4/BA.5. I read that the BA.5 variant appears to have a R0 of > 18. That is higher than measles and puts it as the most infectious virus ever.

Here is the same chart for Los Angeles County. This is my main area of concern as I decide whether to return to the office or continue to work from home. The timing of each spike is different, but the original Omicron spike is evident. Looking at the slow increase of the past few months, is it due to BA.2 or BA.4/BA.5? I had fairly mild symptoms during the past two weeks, but if I get reinfected, will I have similar symptoms or maybe something a lot worse?

It seems that after two and a half years of COVID, we know much more about the virus but there is still a lot of questions.

Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Mascot

It is ancient history by now, but my friend in Beijing sent me both the mascots for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. She picked up a bunch of them in Beijing, and shipped one of each to my friend who happens to be in Chengdu, and he brought them back to the US a few weeks ago while I was on vacation.

This mascot’s name is Bing Dwen Dwen and it is supposed to be a panda inside an “ice” shell. This is for the main Olympic games; there is another mascot for the Paralympic games. It is a red lantern child(?), and no one wants that one. There was a price sticker on the box for ¥210 (about US$30), but these are hard to get without connections, so they are probably worth more for now.

I showed a pic of the various mascots and my niece wants the panda. She was not even sure what the red thing was. People in her high school Chinese class thought it was an alien.

The name of the name of this mascot is Shuey Rhon Rhon, and the sticker price is about half of what the panda above costs. They are fairly large so I do not know what I am going to do with the lantern child if no one else wants it.

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In my living room..The smaller panda has a pedestal that sticks to your car’s dashboard. I am not putting that in my Tesla.

K-Pop Dreams 6/30/2022

https://www.hellokpop.com/lifestyle/k-photo-reel-twice-nayeon-nylon-magazine-august-2019-issue/

I just had a dream where I was having a conversation with Nayeon of the K-Pop girl group TWICE. Maybe it is because she has a solo song out recently so there is a lot of news about her.

In my dream, she drew something on the back of my wrist with a blue or green Sharpie. Of course there was nothing there on my wrist when I woke up, but my left middle toe was hurting like crazy from neuropathy. That is why I still remember parts of the dream and typing this post now. Ouch.

Italy and France COVID Cases – Post-trip Review

The day before leaving for our Europe trip, I posted about COVID cases in Italy and France. At that time, it appeared that the case count in each country was trending downwards. I did not continue checking during our trip. After testing positive for COVID upon our return from Paris, I just updated the case data.

Italy
France

Coincidentally, the COVID case count started to increase just as we left for our trip on June 5th. I am unsure whether I would have changed anything if I had this data available, since I am unsure where I contracted the virus. Perhaps be more careful and wear a mask on the flights back from Paris?

For LA County, the case count was stable to slightly decreasing. It does seem that the US lags European trends by a few months so maybe the count will decrease then spike up again?

This is important because my work wants everyone to return to the office. I thought I had an exemption due to taking immunosuppressive medication, but HR said I now need a doctor’s note. This is after spending over a decade as part of company management.

Bebtelovimab

Today has been one of the worst health days since getting my kidney transplant. Why post-transplant? Because dialysis sucks so bad that anything is better than having to do dialysis.

I mentioned in a prior post that my sister’s family all tested positive for COVID yesterday. I initially tested negative, but the results came back positive on today’s retest.

Ugh. I then spent the entire morning calling all my doctors for instructions or to move upcoming appointments. My nephrologist recommended that I go to the ER and get a monoclonal antibodies infusion to help prevent worsening symptoms.

I drove to the ER at 11:20 am and was put in ER room #27 after an hour. I have been to St. Joseph hospital so often that it is like a second home. I then waited for another hour to see a doctor, then one more hour for the pharmacy to prepare the medication. Finally, a nurse came to insert an IV, and infuse the antibodies. The procedure took about a minute, but including the 60 post-infusion observation period, I was there for four hours. While waiting, I was on my work phone rescheduling several meetings scheduled for this afternoon.

IV

The drug they administered was called bebtelovimab, which has to be the worst named medication ever. The nurse could not pronounce it. After leaving the ER, i went home and made some more work calls, then decided to take a nap. I had turned on the AC and a fan, and I was getting some chills under the cover. At some point, I fall asleep and the AC compressor stops working. This happens occasionally at our house. I then woke up with what felt like the worst fever ever. I tried to measure my temperature with my cheap Chinese made infrared thermometer and it gives me 98.4. Since that cannot be correct, i found a under-the-tongue thermometer and it said 99.9. Ugh again. I then go downstairs and continue to nap on the sofa, finally waking up at 9:00 pm. Having noticed the AC problem, I reset the brakers and everything is fine. I also noticed my fever is gone, and my worsening cough reverted to what it ws this morning.

What happened? Did I just have the shortest fever session? Was I delirious? Did the medication kick in even though it was supposed to take 24 hours¿ Right now it is 10:00 pm and I feel ok, whereas I felt like death at 7:30 pm. Super strange.

Louis Vuitton Flagship Store Visit

On our last day in Paris, we visited the flagship Louis Vuitton store on Champ Élysées. As you can see from the photo, there are at least five stories of luxury goods. I am a typical cheap Chinese male, so I do not own anything with a high-end designer label. There was a line to get in the door, only because each party was assigned a personal shopper to assist you in choosing your perfect purse, wallet, clothing, or whatever.

Here is the line at the side of the building. It moved quickly; we were in line for only about 15 minutes. I was a bit worried that they would not let me in the door.

Here is the entrance from the inside. I did not take a lot of pictures as no one else was, and it seemed inappropriate. But I did get a pic of some shoes. There was no price tag, but I would not buy them.

My sister’s family bought some stuff. My 15-year-old niece bought a small $1,300 purse. Wow, I know it is a long time ago, but all my possessions did not cost even $500 when I was fifteen. They also had some issues with payment since you needed a passport for VAT refunds, and I believe the store reports sales to the buyer’s national tax authorities. Initially they did not bring their passports, then they did not have matching passports and credit cards for the same person. I ended up having to get all their passports and wallets from the hotel so the purchase will go through. In total, it took about three hours. We were offered beverages but none of us asked for anything. I wonder if they have Dom Perignon available.

I did not purchase anyuthing.

Back From Trip

I am back from my 16-day Europe trip. The trip went mostly well except for one “day from Hell” where we could not get a taxi or van to our Eiffel Tower tour, and we missed our Louvre tour since the tour agency changed the meeting place without notifying us. We also had to walk forty minutes back to our hotel at midnight after a night tour since all the taxis were full during that time.

The food in Italy was great, but we ate a lot of pasta and pizza. We did not eat any French food since our schedule was so packed, and most French restaurants near our hotel were expensive and had non-children-friendly menus. We did eat dinners at a Japanese and a Vietnamese restaurant; prices were like what we have here in Orange County.

We also walked a lot. Some of it was due to the many walking tours, but there was also walking in airports, train stations, and just in general since we did not have our cars. Here is the log from Apple Health app.

On WFH days, there is not much walking since I am in my house all day. Starting June 5th, you can see a significant increase in the daily number of steps. The 17,688 day was the night walking tour and having to walk from Notre Dame to the Louvre (hotel area) at night.

On the health side, I was mostly okay except for two medium intensity neuropathy attacks. We did spend $1,500 on travel insurance, but it was worth the peace of mind. My sister’s entire family tested positive for COVID this morning (day after trip), but I tested negative so far. I still need to test for a few more days, and self-quarantine due to close-contact or exposure to COVID infected persons.

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One other health related item. I packed the wrong medication before the trip, so I had way too much Rosuvastatin and no Metoprolol. Since i did bring Losartan, it was not a big deal to miss the medication for two weeks.

Check-in Clusterf*ck

Since our flight is tomorrow night at 9:20 pm, we were able to go online to check-in and print boarding passes. Or so we thought. My sister tried to get it at their house and got sidetracked by a request for COVID vaccination verification. I have been getting several emails from British Airways and it is very unclear what is happening. The oddest thing is that I received an email from BA, but the content is different on my iPhone and browser on my Mac. Timestamp and message subject are the same, but the text is different. I do not even understand how that happens. One message said to sign in and verify documents, while the other says verification failed and I need to do it at the airport tomorrow. When I do go online, the website says still processing. Weird.

Since my sister booked a code-sharing flight on American Airlines, we must do some of the check-in on British Airways website. I believe my seat is okay, but my sister’s seat was reassigned. However, if you look on the BA website, the confirmation and the seat selection pages show different values for her. Also, if you go to the AA website, there are also different seat assignments, plus the seat assignment page has a third seat number. How can that be? We also cannot find the seating map on BA’s website. The original booking said the plane was a 77W. That designation does not exist on BA’s website, and none of the plane seat maps matches what we see when we go to choose seats. We did see a seat map on Aerolopa that matches the seat selection diagram on BA’s website but was for a 77H.

It is not an exaggeration to say that evne though we are checked in (I think), we do not know where our seats are. I would guess the boarding pass if most accurate, but both airline’s websites do not agree.

I used to fly a lot pre3-COVID and pre-dialysis. I have never see so much confusion about seat selection and online check-in. My sister is waiting for a callback from American Airlines; the wait time was 90 minutes. Fairly sure they will tell her to call British Airways tomorrow.

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My sister said she was able to talk to someone from British Airways. They did say she and one of my nieces were bumped from their confirmed seats, though they could not or would not tell my shyster why. They also said there was a row of reserved seats at the back of the section used for this purpose. Unfortunately, the first row of business class is right next to the bathrooms, and the back row has basinets behind the bulkhead. We are going even earlier to the airport tomorrow to see if we can get our original seats back. I think someone with their top tier frequent flyer program wanted the seats we had, and British Airways went ahead and screwed their non-status customers. Makes business sense, but shitty custome5r se5rvice neverthless.

EU Digital Passenger Locator Form (dPLF)

This is a form that all visitors to EU countries had to fill out previously. However, most countries have stopped requiring this form, except for Malta, Slovenia, and France. Since we are visiting Italy and Paris on our trip, we need to fill out this form.

I started filling out this form on my iPhone using Chrome browser. Since we are stopping in Italy first, I did not know what the form wanted for origin. Italy? United States? United Kingdom (London transit)? Finally, I decided to enter all our flights, including the return flights.

The form asks for a lot of information, including flight and seat numbers. After each flight is entered, you get options to enter the next flight and [Temporary Save]. I did hit save after the first flight but skipped that step going forward. Of course, the webpage decides to crash and freeze on the fourth flight data entry, so I went over to my MacBook to continue. The app did save something, but it was missing random fields for the first flight, and all subsequent flights.

Ugh.

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Done. Luckily I could add family members traveling together so my sister’s family do not need to fill out this ugly form.

Also, whenever you see an option to temporary save on a webform, click it. It is like a save point before you encounter a boss monster in a game. You need to save because you will fail and need to return to your save point.

Italy and France COVID Cases 6/4/2022

Since the EU case rate map is a live link, it will show the same data as the previous post. If you look at the COVID data on Google/NYT, the number of cases in both countries continues to drop.

Italy

France

Like the previous charts I snipped for both countries, Italy’s case count is still decreasing while France is holding flat. Again, for comparison, here is the case count for Los Angeles County.

Since our work is asking people to return to the office, this trend is positive as well. I have a medical exemption to work from home, but I still feel more effective if I am onsite so I will likely go back in the office two or three times a week when I return from Europe.

Maybe If (BIBI) + English Cover

Official MV for OST from Our Beloved Summer K-Drama. I found an English cover version on YouTube.

maybe if I
woke up in the morning
hearing your voice
maybe if I was with you
maybe if we’d
gone through the hard times together
would we have never broken up?
would we have stayed the same?
the distance between you and me
it never seems to disappear
you and your harsh words frozen in my heart

if you had met me
before this happened
it shouldn’t be this hard
if you just told me
the things you went through
swear I’d hold your hand
we wouldn’t be strangers like we are right now
but still I would try, try, try
can I hug you just one last time

memories fade
but all i know is I miss you
this longing that I feel
the pain feels fresh and oh so real
only if you… if you could come
the distance between you and me
it never seems to disappear
you and our memories still locked in my heart

if you had met me
before this happened
it shouldn’t be this hard
if you just told me
the things you went through
swear I’d hold your hand
we wouldn’t be strangers like we are right now
but still I would try, try, try
can I hug you just one last time

will you be there when I wake up from this nightmare?
open arm
in a wide embrace
and you tell me
things you regret you
never told me before
I’ll hold you tight and never let you go
tell me whenever
I’ll be wherever you are
only if you come