Another COVID-19 Chart

This one is from the Orange County Business Journal. It shows a seven day moving average for several counties and when the original stay-at-home order from Governor Newsome was lifted. Pretty much 2-3 weeks after the order was lifted, the number of cases start increasing. Orange County is the orange line and kinda goes crazy in early June until mid-July.

*https://www.ocbj.com/news/2020/aug/12/covid-19-cases-down-peak/*

It does appear that we may have been avoid the spike in cases if we continued to stay home, or was better at wearing masks or keeping social distance. I don’t know how people think wearing masks is ineffective when you look at statistics across the world, especially in Asia. Do people really need to be infected and get super sick to believe that this pandemic is real?

COVID-19 @Work 8/11/2020

The latest count is 107 cases at my work site, and about 280+ across the entire company. That number seems to have steadied a bit, much like the rest of California, but it’s weird that is not decreasing. Is nobody recovering in the two months the company has been reporting the number? Or are new cases still greater than those recovering? If the pandemic is being contained, the total number of active cases should be dropping. Right?

I still think I should go into work at least one day a month to check if anyone left anything important for me at my desk. I do have another manager checking it periodically but I don’t know if she feels comfortable opening all my mail. I still have a ton of old bank statements that I want to shred and don’t want to do it four pages at a time with my home shredder. And there’s always the 30″ monitor on my desk that I want to bring home.

Church Open Again

I got another COVID-19 status email from my church today. There have been quite of few of them since the lockdown started, stopped, and resumed. The church was closed for Friday and Sunday meetings for a few weeks but they are going to open this weekend again. This means full Friday prayer meeting and children’s programs, plus Sunday Worship. I think I’m still going to stay home. I haven’t been to a Sunday sermon since October of last year. It was heart surgery followed by recovery, then the COVID-19 shutdowns. There are just too many people there in the sanctuary. A few cell group member who went said the church tries to keep separation between families but the air doesn’t care. It’s like having a non-smoking section in an airplane… air circulation doesn’t really work that way. I’ll still go to the Divorce Care Group on Thursday nights since it’s only a few people in a large conference room. Several hundred plus kids is a different story.

Locksmith Door Repair

The doorknob on our door to the backyard broke a few days ago. I told my dad to find a locksmith to come and replace the lock. He, of course, wanted to see if he can DIY it and spent almost an entire day removing the lock from the door. It turned out a part of the lock was still stuck in the jamb so he could not get the door open.

Finally, last night he called a locksmith and they showed up promptly at 9:00 am today. It took them <2 minutes to get the lock mechanism out, and about 10 minutes to rekey and install a new lock. It cost us ~$210 for the entire bill: travel, lock removal and replacement, lock rekey, and part cost for the new lock itself. Their ad said they’ve been in business for 43 years and they did a quick and professional job.

Of course in the era of COVID-19, they didn’t come in the house. Initially my dad shook hands with the locksmith, after which they both paused and realized that we don’t shake hands anymore. I also make my dad wear a mask. I think this will be the new normal in interactions with strangers going forward: face masks and fist/elbow bumps.

More COVID-19 in Orange County

Our work site is up to 102 cases of COVID-19, though that’s technically in Los Angeles County. In Orange County, it does seem the number of new cases is going down since Governor Newsome re instituted the stay-at-home order. Again, there seems to be some discrepancies depending on where you look:

*From: Orange County Health Care Agency*

Again, it’s weird that the total numbers tie but the daily data in the charts are totally different. Both definitely shows a downward trend after the peak in early July.

Since there are differences and I’m not sure what are the criteria for reporting a positive case, we can look at hospitalization data. This is from the OC Health Care Agency:

*Total hospitalization numbers include ICU patients*

Assuming the hospitalization rate is fairly constant for the population, then this is probably better data to look at since it’s reported by hospitals and includes only those with serious symptoms. Again, there seems to be a huge increase mid-June after California relaxed restrictions at the end of May, and a decrease recently. Hopefully, people will be patient this time (Orange County Supervisors and school openings) and not rush out again causing another spike in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

I’ve already visited the DMV so anyplace else seems less risky in comparison.

Not Going In To The Office

Once again, I was planning to go in to the office this weekend. My password for my work account is expiring and I needed to change it. In the past, I’ve had problems changing my password while working remote on the VPN. Invariably, the password change would be fine on the desktop computer but would not stick on the laptop. IT told us in the past to bring the laptop to the office and physically connect it to the network using the Ethernet cable. That usually solved the problem but it’s a PITA if you’re a remote worker, as I am becoming.

I was thinking of going in right after dialysis (and after charging my car at a Supercharger) but I just changed my password using my desktop at work through the VPN and Remote Desktop. I then logged out of the laptop and was able to log in again using the new password. VPN and email still works so I think I’m good. This saves me 90 minutes of driving and the risk of getting COVID-19 in case some idiot coughed or sneezed around my desk.

BTW, we’re up to 102 cases of infection at our local work site. It’s slowed down a bit but crazy to realize that number was 47 on July 4th.

Saturate OC

I’ve been a Christian for almost 30 years and have attended and served in many churches. These people on the beach seem totally crazy to me. I really don’t understand their reasoning or justification for doing this. We’re in the middle of a super infectious pandemic where people are dying daily. I’m willing to bet that these idiots are one of the main reasons the pandemic is out-of-control in Orange County.

Our church is not a participant in this. Sadly, I recognize some of the church “partners” on their website (Rock Harbor, Harvest). Our church did open up pretty quickly on Memorial Day weekend but shut down again per the governor’s orders. Do these people think they’re being oppressed or something? Can’t they worship from home? People are going to get sick and die from this. Do they think God is going to protect them from their own stupidity? Ugh, normal people are now going to blame Christians for spreading the virus. I’m Chinese and Christian… I guess that’s two strikes for me.

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There are countless news stories about some COVID-19 denier getting sick, almost die, and then warn people to be careful and practice social distancing. Is that what it’s going to take to stop these idiots? Having family members or themselves get sick and possibly die? I wonder if they will get vaccinated once an effective vaccine is found.

COVID-19 @Work 7/23/2020

The update today from work has the number at 92 in our office. Hopefully California has hit it’s peak in number of new daily cases and people are getting the message to socially distance themselves. I’m referring to this chart from the Orange County COVID-19 Dashboard:

There appears to be a definite drop off in the daily reported number of cases since July. Hopefully it’s not due to the new reporting system mandated by the White House.

However, looking at this chart, it seems there is a huge fall off in the number of tests reported. Is it because less people are testing because less people have symptoms? Without knowing the criteria for testing and reporting, it’s hard to make sense of all the data. I wish there was a summary dashboard with a simple stoplight with red = stay home, yellow = exercise caution and social distancing, and green = mostly safe, plus an up/down arrow indicating if things are getting better or worse.

CA Driver’s License + Real ID + COVID-19

My California driver’s license expires next month so I need to renew it. While looking at the renewal papers, I thought it would be good to get a Real ID as well since I’ll need it eventually. I do have a US Passport so it’s not urgent since the passport can be used as a Real ID, and I’m probably not travelling or visiting a federal building soon. Anyway, this renewal has to be done in person, and I and signed up to go to the Santa Ana DMV office. In hindsight, I probably should have picked the Costa Mesa office instead. I haven’t gone in yet; by filling out all the paperwork and uploading my documentation, the DMV said I can bypass the huge line even though they are not handing out appointments. I hope I don’t have to stand in line for hours when I do visit.

On that topic, it does look like the # of positive tests and deaths in Orange County is decreasing from the peak in early July. Maybe it will be “safer” if I wait a few days/weeks before going to the DMV

COVID-19 @Work 7/19/2020

Wow, the number is now up to 88. It jumped another +8 on Friday. There is no detail on each infection so I don’t know if people are getting sick at work, or from hanging out inappropriately after work.

I guess I’m not going into work today, again.

Face Mask Policy

I just read that Walmart, Kroger, Target, and other large retail chains are going to require masks for customers at their stores nationwide. Until now, each store has followed the local county-level rules for mask usage. I think this is a no-brainer. It’s much easier to tell everyone to wear a mask than to track requirements across 6,000+ stores for Walmart. Seriously, there is no downside to wearing a mask. I really don’t get the mentality of those refusing to wear a mask. Are they the same people that don’t believe in vaccines and motorcycle helmets? Will they reject a COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available?

I went to the local Albertson’s to pick up some medication from the pharmacy and some groceries. This is in the midst of a high infection area in Orange County, and everyone, with no exceptions, was wearing a mask. They also had employees sanitizing shopping carts and directing traffic at checkout to maintain social distancing. I believe they won’t let you in without a mask, though not sure if it’s a national policy or if they are following local guidelines.

COVID-19 Cases in Orange County

Found this map/infographic on r/orangecounty on Reddit. Apparently, the data is from here. So both my house and the dialysis center is in the City of Orange, which has one of the highest case count per 10,000 residents at 94.4.

*https://old.reddit.com/r/orangecounty/comments/htu9v4/charting_oc/*

Here is a map of median household income in Orange County.

*https://statisticalatlas.com/county/California/Orange-County/Household-Income*

There seems to be a rough correlation between case rate and median income. As expected, comments on the Reddit thread blames income inequality. Basically poorer people live in denser housing and can’t work from home. However, South County seems to be where all the anti-mask protests are taking place yet infection rates are lower then North County.

Questions:

What is the main driver of COVID-19 infections? Are people getting sick at work from co-workers? At home from family members? At extra-curricular gatherings from strangers?
Why would there be a spike in cases in early June? Is it restaurant openings? Church services? Gathering at beaches and parks?
Is the spike in cases uniform across all cities or also related to household income? Why or why not?
How is the case rate related to mask utilization rate?

Sure, if you live with more people, the infection risk goes up, especially if family members have to work or are not socially distancing when out. However, my company’s HR department claims that all COVID-19 cases at work are from non-work contacts. In the end, I’m trying to judge the risk of living in a dark red area. Should I go food shopping in Irvine instead? Without tracing the source of each case, it’s hard to manage risk.

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I just noticed the highest cumulative age group for number of cases is 25-34. Is that because that’s the group with the most population or is the case rate also the highest? Did that change over time, i.e., since the spike, or was that always the case? If it was a recent development, since we were told that COVID-19 initially affected older and immuno-compromised people, then being poor doesn’t explain the numbers. It’s likely that younger people are ignoring precautions and going out post Memorial Day. Maybe Santa Ana and Anaheim has a higher percentage of younger people.

COVID-19 @Work 7/14/2020

We now have 75 cases of infected employees in our office. This number was 67 over the weekend so that’s +8 in one day. A lot of people in my department are opting to stay home again. HR stresses that almost all cases of infection are from activities outside of work. The company is making everyone wear surgical masks in the office instead of just the cloth ones. We know that’s not happening in California in general.

Speaking of California, the governor has re-closed a bunch of businesses again, including churches. My church just sent out an email letting everyone know that the church is shut down again until August 2nd. The senior pastor was very adamant about opening up the church for Memorial Day weekend. I don’t understand why people can’t just stay home for another few weeks. We need to figure out work and daycare but to haphazardly go out to random gatherings is just careless or stupid. California initially seemed to control the spread of COVID-19 but here we are in July, and emergency rooms and ICU’s are running out of beds again.

COVID-19 @Work (updated)

A co-worker showed me an Intranet page at work that has daily COVID-19 updates. The page also has a tally of the number of infected employees. At my location, there’s probably ~5,000 employees and the latest infection count is ~60 or slightly over 1%. I don’t know if that’s good or bad compared to other companies listed as “essential” but I decided not to go to work yesterday, even though it was a Sunday. Other co-workers were also concerned with the number of infected employees and decided to work from home more often as well.

The scary part of COVID-19 is the wide variety of symptoms for those infected. For a lot of people, there are mild to no symptoms. For others, they sometimes die within days of the infection. You have to assume the worst so avoiding infection should be very important. I really don’t understand the people that congregate in large groups without wearing masks.

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Update: 7/8/2020

I checked our work’s Intranet page and now it says 65 employees infected in my office. That about +3 each workday. We can’t figure out whether they are getting infected at work or outside of work (bars, restaurants, etc.) so it’s difficult to determine the risk of actually showing up to work. In May and June, it did look like we (California) was getting a handle on the spread of the virus but now it’s turned into a sh*tshow again.

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Update: 7/10/2020

As of 5:00 pm yesterday, the infected count in our office site is up to 67. That’s +8 in four days. Why does this feel like a game of Plague?

Antibody Testing at Work

I came to work again today, mainly to participate in a COVID-19 antibody testing study. Our workplace is partnering with some Harvard-affiliated group to test a bunch of employees to see the prevalence of COVID-19 at the workplace. The email came out last Friday while I was in the office but I signed up too late and all the time slots were filled so I came in today.

Since the antibody test requires a blood sample, there was a conference room set up with several blood drawing stations. The guy that took my sample was a med student from Mt. Sinai in New York. Since I had a fistula in my right arm, I told him that he could only draw from the left arm. It took him two tries to try and hit a vein. We’re supposed to get results back in a week.

Nextdoor Covidiot

No, stupid woman. It’s a public forum. If you get to ask stupid questions in public, then we get to comment on how you’re an idiot. Of all things to risk your life for… a pedicure. In the comments, she keeps throwing out the strawman of either going out now or staying home forever. No, you can also stay home a bit longer until medical professionals tell you otherwise. I imagine her name is Karen.

COVID-19 Testing

Our workplace is offering COVID-19 testing for employees. We contracted an external company to operate a medical clinic several years ago and they are doing PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests for anyone that is symptomatic. Only problem is you have to be on-site at the clinic to get the test. This is where they stick a cotton swab high up your nose. Results should be available within 24 hours. I’m not sure where the clinic is sending the samples since all labs are backed up currently.

We’re also participating in an antibody testing study with a team from Harvard-affiliated institutions. Here a random sample of employees will be chosen for a blood test, also taken at the work clinic, to see if they’ve been exposed to the coronavirus. I guess the end goal is to see if these antibodies provide protection against reinfection.

It’s good we’re actively participating in testing programs since our Federal government dropped the ball on this one. Can’t ask people to go back to work and risk their lives if we’re not even testing.

Simulating An Epidemic

YouTube video by 3Blue1Brown that simulates how various quarantine measures affect the infection curve.

He has several key takeaways but most importantly, we need to keep the measures in place until the virus is eradicated, otherwise we’ll just have a second wave of infections. I don’t like staying home but I’m more worried about getting sick at the dialysis clinic.

Here’s where I believe President Trump is an asshole. I didn’t vote for either him or Hillary during the 2016 elections. He’s so worried about his re-election that he is willing to tell lies about the pandemic in order to prop up stock prices. Basically trading lives for votes. More people are going to die if we go back to business as usual while the pandemic is ongoing. He should just shut the hell up and let Dr. Fauci talk.

Uncertainty Anxiety

Throughout the recovery period after heart surgery, I was struggling with anxiety and even panic attacks. The worst case was when I had to get out of the house, even though it was 11:00 pm at night, raining, and I could not even walk that far. It was an overwhelming sense of impending doom.

Since then, there have been periods of high and low. I think as each new issue arises, I have to do research to find out more info, and knowing more relieves my anxiety. This happened when the UCLA transplant coordinator called me back and left a long message about status, and also when I finally started cardiac rehab, which was required by UCLA. I don’t do well when there are too many unknowns. I start thinking about all the worst cases and start having dreams/nightmares about it.

Right now, I have several unresolved items:

Medical insurance: Still have not received a call back from my work insurance. I sent them very clear written evidence that they have the wrong information but they’re still rejecting past claims. I’m pretty sure all the claims will be resolved but not looking forward to the amount of extra unnecessary phone calls required.
Worse health post surgery: It’s hard to compare without objective data but my peripheral neuropathy definitely feels a lot worse than before. I don’t think the numbness and tingling was bothering me 24 hours a day before surgery. Also the loss of remaining kidney function is stressing me out. I have to really watch my fluid intake.
Insomnia: It’s been a week of no sleep. Sometimes I finally fall asleep around 6:00 am but always need afternoon naps to make up sleep time. I know it’s bad for my recovery but nothing is helping.
Worsening chest pain: I thought I was getting better but lately, the chest pains from the surgery appears to be getting worse. From the growing keloid on the scar to pain and difficulty breathing when lying down, I seem to be losing ground on recovery.
Employment: Still haven’t caught up at work. I get email daily about issues that I do not know how to solve. I’m not sure if it’s okay yet. There is a lot of systems and coding skills required and I’m probably can do only 50% of the task. I have staff that can do everything but it’s a new experience managing stuff I don’t completely understand.

Finally, this COVID-19 pandemic has made things much worse. All non-essential medical services are now on hold so hospitals can deal with infected patients. This cardiac rehab program, and therefore my transplant, is on indefinite hold. Even after everything resumes, I have to weigh the risk of taking immunosupressive drugs during a global pandemic. I was hoping for a kidney transplant and an end to dialysis this summer but now I’m back to not knowing. Even now, I’m worried constantly about getting the virus and infecting my parents at home. Since they’re both 78 years old, there is a non-zero chance that if one of us gets COVID-19, it will kill all three of us.

COVID-19 Symptoms? (updated)

So I did not get any sleep at all last night/this morning. I think it was mostly due to my increased coughing, which irritated my heart surgery incision. I also noticed that when I’m lying down, it’s a bit harder to breath without coughing. I still don’t have a fever though so this may be just a cold.

No fever and no itchy eyes points to the common cold. I did get a flu shot earlier this year from my PD nurse. I have a lot of phlegm when I cough but it’s similar to what I had right after surgery. Since almost everyone infected with COVID-19 is feverish, I think I’m okay.

Sucks not being able to sleep though.

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After my walk, I was more tired. Even thought I’m supposed to be working from home, I had to take a nap. According to Fitbit, I managed to get about an hour and a half of sleep. It’s not great but better than nothing. Fortunately, nothing urgent happened at work while I was napping.